1. Separate data & statistics for Llandudno are not maintained by Hout Bay Neighborhood Watch (HBNW) or SAPS. Therefore this graph was created by volunteers assisting the Llandudno Neighborhood Watch (LNW).
2. On 07AUG17 historical data was manually extracted from individual line-item summaries in the confidential portion of the HBNW website. Prior to that, this did not exist.
3. Raw data is confidential but is accessible to anyone applying/accepted to become a HBNW member. Data is initially entered via the Link (ex Ttrumpet) process that is vetted by the Watchcon controllers in real-time for compliance with their original 2011 categories & definitions.
4. Other data sources from Insurance & Armed Response companies are either confidential or unhelpful.
5. Grouping of categories into "Violent" vs "Non-Violent" was done by LSEC to summarize all data into just 2 lines.
6. Important - All data points are for End-of-Year values.
7. Current year with Year-to-Date (YTD) month-end values is forecasted to end-of-year using the "FORECAST" function in excel (linear regression) referencing the immediate prior 12-months (Moving Annual Total; MAT). This is the best-way found so-far to fairly show current monthly data on a line graph of comparative "end-of-year" values.
8. Trendline (black ) is added using basic linear function in Excel for all data points shown; then extrapolated into next year.
9. Note that we have also reverse engineered what the statistics were just prior to the 06 April 17 vote…as well as those to-date. There are many different ways to display this data; and SIGNIFICANT efforts have gone-into trying to provide the method that is most: transparent, fair, and clear. However, residents are encouraged to take a CLOSE look at the attached and make their own conclusions.
Llandudno Crime Statistics as if 31MAR17.pdf